UPGRADE PARTY
v28.0 changeset — economy log

Boom and Bust Cycles

Somewhere, right now, an asset class is booming and another is busting. The question is who's just watching — and who's steering.

What Old Money Knows

There's a recurring idea in books about generational wealth: "Old Money" understands something most people never stop to notice — there is always a boom or bust cycle running in one or more asset classes at any given moment.

Commodities Stocks Real Estate Credit Currencies
BOOM BUST BOOM BUST

The cycle never really stops — it just changes which asset class is riding it.

Waiting vs. Steering

Pro-Cycle Efforts

Most people experience booms and busts as weather — something that just happens to them. But not everyone waits for the cycle to arrive. Procyclical strategies actively lean into the cycle already underway — piling on leverage during the boom, pulling out fast as the bust begins — which has the side effect of making both the boom and the bust more extreme than they would have been on their own.

That's the difference between watching a cycle and amplifying one. The first is investing. The second starts to look like engineering the outcome.

The Uncomfortable Overlap

Disaster Capitalism

There's an old saying that gets at the same idea from a different angle:

One person's hardship is another person's harvest.

Taken to its extreme, this becomes disaster capitalism — the practice of treating crises not as tragedies to respond to, but as opportunities to buy low, restructure fast, and profit from the disorientation before anyone can organize a response.

Related Ideas

Same Pattern, Other Angles